The key scenario of the Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE) for the Greek economy in 2023 predicts growth of 1.6% and inflation at 4.2%, provided that the current conditions will not worsen.
At the recent presentation of the quarterly IOBE report on the Greek economy, Institute General Manager Nikos Vettas explained that the main scenario may be implemented with assistance from investments, which are expected to reach a rate of 10.5%. If that does not materialise, however, there is clear risk of even zero growth for Greece in the coming year. The main scenario also predicts private consumption of 0.8% and unemployment of 11.5%. All of the above will come to pass provided the coronavirus pandemic does not return in full force again and that prevailing geopolitical conditions are not intensified.
For 2022, IOBE’s main scenario calls for 6% growth and inflation of 9.7%, with investments contributing at a rate of 6.6% and the unemployment rate at 12.3%.
Based on the forecasts the Greek government has incorporated in its draft state budget, the change in the GDP for 2022 will come to 5.3%, while in 2023, it will be restricted to 2.1%. The International Monetary Fund’s forecasts for the change in Greece’s GDP are along a similar vein. For 2022, the IMF is predicting a 5.2% change in the GDP, while for 2023, it is forecasting growth of 1.8%. Note that, for 2023, the IMF is forecasting a change in the GDP for the euro area as a whole of 0.5%.
